Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
